How Coronavirus Raises the Stakes

Coronavirus was a joke a month and a half ago - Wuhan Virus, a whisper from overseas that no one in the public saw turning into a large epidemic or, specifically, a political issue. Now it is flipping the script on what looked to be President Trump's rock solid reelection odds against a weak democratic field. Corona does a few things to shake up the political scene, and could result in two very different realities in November - one where Trump emerges with Reagan-level victory over the Democratic Nominee, and one where he is defeated by a historic margin not seen in years.

Coronavirus firstly shakes up the political scene indirectly, hitting Trump where it hurts him the most: the Stock Market. The great success of the Dow, small businesses, and increases in worker wages under his administration was his main selling point. It was what allowed him to point to competitors and say that they would ruin it. Now, Coronavirus has wrecked that. The Dow sunk, and it sunk hard. It was strong, at $29,551 - a record without signs of stopping soon, but as of March 16th, it stands at $20,188 - an absurd drop of over 30%.

Trump does an "elbump" after declaring Coronavirus a National Emergency

While the stock market isn't the economy, it mirrors it well, and the Dow acts as a way of gauging market strength. So far, increased panic over coronavirus directly correlates with market weakening, and with a weakening market we see weakening approval ratings of the administration. This not only means that a poor management of the outbreak could damn Trump's reelection odds, but also threatens to politicise the outbreak.

Trump is acutely aware of this and has retooled his strategy from attempting to assure everyone they are fine despite the pandemic (to prevent market collapse), to calling for the parties to come together to prevent just that, because he knows any politicisation of the pandemic leaves him inevitably on the losing side.

By calling together the nation, he is attempting to kill two birds with one stone: stop the Democrats from using his performance with coronavirus to hurt his election odds, and beat his reputation as a controversial figure by calling for an end to the dreaded partisan gridlock in the process. Whether this works, or is a band-aid on a bullet wound is the question that remains to be answered.

Trump encourages the nation to "stop the partisanship"

The coronavirus has also been the final nail in Senator Sanders political coffin. Sanders is undoubtedly an outsider and a very controversial, energetic figure. In a time of hysteria with unfamiliar and even mildly terrifying things like quarantines happening, the nation looks to a familiar figure - and reliable "Uncle Joe" is that figure. The coronavirus began just in time for Bernie Sanders to take the hardest hit for it, and while he attempted to use it to justify single-payer at the debate last night, Joe Biden shut him down with one sentence:

"It is not working in Italy right now, and they have a single-payer system," Biden said.

Whether of not Italy speaks for the world, a time of crisis where people are in fear breeds a desire for the familiar and the comforting. People want someone to have hope in, someone they can rely on - and no one is more reliable than Joseph R. Biden, who has, for better or worse, been in Washington for 5 decades. Despite the tension over the virus, and the focus on it throughout the debate. The two men were civil, and the coronavirus may ultimately serve to unite the party around Biden, save those die-hard Bernie supporters who have a ride or die mentality.

Even Biden and Sanders shared an "Elbump"

The reality in November is really contingent on three large things: whether Trump handles coronavirus well, and if he doesn't, whether he chooses to sacrifice Pence for his own reputation (which deserve's an article of it's own), and whether the Democrats effectively use it to play up the nominee as a bastion of comfort and security in trying times.