Why Biden Won Super Tuesday, and What it Says About Our Politics

Monday night, with twelve hours to go until Super Tuesday began I predicted that Senator Bernie Sanders would perform better than anyone expected he would, and Former Vice President Joe Biden would not be able to follow up his South Carolina victory. I was wrong. Very wrong, and it was apparent from the first state of the night: Virginia, where Biden won by a larger margin than in even South Carolina. But why did he win when all the signs pointed to a runaway Sanders victory?

Biden Surged to an Unexpected Win

Well, to start, we have to look at Biden's base. It is not young. Most first time voters showed to vote for Bernie Sanders at around 1 in 3, while only 1 in 5 first time voters favoured Biden. It also isn't politically active, it's more politically apathetic. That is most likely why Biden does not have as many donations, but ultimately had more voters. But he would have needed more than that to turn out as many people as he did when faced with such adversity - such a movement like Sanders. What was that turn-out tool?

In the same way the Democrat's turn out tool this November will be President Donald John Trump, Biden's turnout tool was none other than Bernard Sanders. Fear of a radical with momentum was enough to charge the idle majority of the Democratic Party to drag themselves from work to the polling booths on Tuesday. At it's core, it is the challenge of any radical on the national stage in this country. The more momentum you gain, the more moderates materialise out of the woodwork to vote against you. It is a natural failsafe for our nation from radicalism.

Sanders was an Unknowing Biden's Turnout Tool

But when does the equation tip in favour of the radicals? Put simply, it doesn't, lest the radical present themselves as moderate. Lincoln's actions and beliefs were more than that of a radical for his time, but he ran on the Republican ticket stating he was willing to put aside his personal qualms with slavery and curb as opposed to ban it. So he won as a result of being willing to moderate for the election to accomplish more radical ends in the long run. This same sentiment of voting more towards those who present as moderates still exists today. As Americans, we have a (well placed) aversion to change that has lasted since we experienced the Second Great Awakening.

It was this sentiment that turned out the politically apathetic and propelled Biden to victory. The endorsements of so many of his contenders further delivered some more non-apathetic supporters to his hands, but do not be fooled. This is a challenge of radical versus moderate, and the moderates are moving because of it. It is a politically tumultuous time, and the moderates are rising to stem the radical tide that has gradually grown since Sander's near-win in his 2016 run. They certainly are enough this time, but will their numbers be strong enough to stop it in elections to come? Only time will tell.